James Talarico's Odds to Defeat Ken Paxton in Texas Hit All-time High

James Talarico has the best shot to win a Senate seat in Texas for a Democrat in decades. On election day, his odds are sitting at all-time highs since the race began against Republican Ken Paxton.

Traders on Kalshi are currently giving Talarico a 74% shot at winning the race — up from 20% at the start of the midterm election year. Polling has also reflected similar sentiment shifting against Ken Paxton, who picked up President Trump's endorsement this summer. A Real Clear Politics average of recent polls has Talarico up by more than 2.5 points vs. Paxton heading into the final stretch.

However, excitement among Democrats is naturally on edge given how close other candidates have come to what Talarico may achieve, only to fall short. Beto O'Rourke was the last good chance in 2018, when he failed to defeat incumbent Republican Ted Cruz when all was said and done.

But according to Satoshi Action Fund founder Dennis Porter, this is a very different race, in a very different climate, in a very different Texas.

"Beto really never was — except for one poll — up in the race," Porter told Coinage's prediction market show Market Signal, pointing this year to early outperformance in early voting among Democrats. "You also have massive demographic shifts. Since Beto ran, we had the pandemic and a lot of people moving around the country. A lot of Californians ... moving inland. Texas became a very popular place to move."

But perhaps in more of a shift that captures national sentiment, polls have also show discontent with the current administration around affordability and gas prices and corruption. A recent CNBC poll showed corruption to be one of the top issues among national voters in 2026 — even topping affordability by a margin of 36% to 34%. Porter flagged that as a bit of an oddity for American elections, but posited that it represents the anti-Trump sentimet that is hurting Paxton.

"[Talarico] is also very big on the anti-corruption component, which is a huge part of this race right now," he said. "That's just how bad it's gotten — the degree of corruption in Washington D.C., I even have Republican strategists and big time, huge Republican influencers secretly coming up to me telling me, 'When Trump launched that memecoin that was when it was the beginning of the end for me."

The Texas race between Talarico and Paxton figures to play a large role in how control in the Senate shakes out on election day. Democrats need to pick up four Republican-held seats while maintaining control of their own to win the Senate majority this year. On the morning of election day, prediction markets are hinting at a 76% chance Democrats can pull it off.

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