Odds of Crypto’s CLARITY Act Sink Despite Latest Trump Push
Odds that the CLARITY Act will pass this year are falling despite a renewed push from President Trump
By: Zack Guzman
July 14, 2026
President Donald Trump’s latest push to get crypto’s long-awaited market structure bill through Congress should have given its odds a boost.
Instead, traders are growing even more convinced that time is running out.
Trump urged the Senate on Monday to pass the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act), warning lawmakers that China could seize leadership in both crypto and artificial intelligence if the United States fails to act. The president framed the push as a tribute to the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, who died unexpectedly over the weekend, telling lawmakers not to “let China win on either subject.”
But on Polymarket, the odds that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law this year fell to just 34% on Polymarket. That marks a dramatic reversal from earlier optimism surrounding the bill, which Galaxy Digital's research estimated had a 75% chance of passage in late May before cutting its forecast to 60% in June. Odds are now as low as they have ever been on Polymarket.
According to Fundstrat Head of Digital Asset Strategy Sean Farrell, the market may be correctly identifying that Trump’s support is not enough to overcome the bill’s biggest remaining problem.
“I think right now, if you ask anybody, they’ll ascribe basically a coin flip to it passing,” Farrell said in a new interview with Coinage. “The big hang-up for this bill—and it seems like it’s going to be kind of a binary situation—is these ethics provisions.”
The CLARITY Act would establish the first comprehensive federal framework governing the broader crypto market. Among other provisions, it would more clearly define when digital assets should be treated as securities or commodities and divide regulatory authority between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The House passed its version of the bill last year, and the Senate Banking Committee advanced its version by a bipartisan 15-9 vote in May. A combined draft drawing from work by the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees is expected to emerge as soon as this week. But the latest attempt could still lack the bipartisan support needed to secure the 60 Senate votes required to move forward.
The biggest obstacle is whether lawmakers will include restrictions preventing the president, senior government officials, members of Congress, and their families from profiting from crypto ventures while holding office.
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That demand has become even more contentious following financial disclosures showing that crypto businesses associated with Trump and his family generated roughly $1.4 billion in income in 2025. The White House has denied that the president or his family have engaged in conflicts of interest.
The disclosure has nonetheless strengthened the argument from Senate Democrats that passing crypto legislation without ethics restrictions could allow government officials to write rules that directly benefit their own financial interests.
That is a particularly difficult issue for Republicans to concede when the legislation requires Democratic votes to survive.
According to reporting Monday, the current CLARITY Act text does not include an ethics provision. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) also warned Senate leadership that the latest proposal contained “significant flaws,” arguing that any final bill must prevent presidents, lawmakers, senior officials, and their families from profiting from the industry.
Farrell said that divide has turned what might otherwise be a highly likely legislative victory into something approaching a coin toss.
“My impression is that everything else that is negotiable within this bill is in a good spot,” he said. “If these ethics concerns were not a part of the legislative process here, I would be, say, north of 80% on this passing.”
Instead, Farrell said the outlook can shift between 40% and 60% “on seemingly a daily basis,” depending on whether negotiators appear any closer to resolving the ethics fight.
Complicating matters further is the calendar.
Congress returned from its July recess on Monday with only a few weeks available to introduce the merged legislation, secure Democratic support, complete Senate debate, reconcile any changes with the House, and send the final product to Trump.
“They do have to get it done by August 7,” Farrell said. “Beyond that, the legislative calendar is just basically — given the midterms are this year — they’re just going to be running the clock out.”
But none of the recent developments seem to answer the largest question now hanging over the legislation: whether Trump and Republicans will accept restrictions targeting the financial activity that has made the president one of the most prominent beneficiaries of the crypto industry.
Farrell acknowledged that the dispute could turn quickly if the two sides reach a compromise.
Trump is pushing harder for the CLARITY Act to pass. But unless that push produces an ethics concession capable of attracting Democratic votes, it may only highlight why the bill’s odds continue to fall.
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