Oil Expert Stephen Schork Warns Prices Could Spike Again to $113
Why Iran's latest threat to cut off shipping beyond the Strait of Hormuz can send oil back above $100
By Zack Guzman
July 16, 2026
Oil prices are rising again as the conflict with Iran threatens to disrupt two of the world’s most important energy shipping routes. But according to oil analyst Stephen Schork, the market is still failing to price in just how quickly the situation could deteriorate.
With West Texas Intermediate crude trading around $80 per barrel, Schork sees a path toward $86, then $96, and potentially as high as $113 before the end of July if the conflict expands into a broader regional war.
“What I’m saying is that that $113 could happen between today and the end of this month, from a probabilistic standpoint,” Schork told Coinage in a new interview.
The call comes as Iran threatens not only traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, but also shipping in the Red Sea, potentially undermining alternative routes that Saudi Arabia and other producers have developed to bypass the Persian Gulf.
For months, the oil market’s biggest fear has been that a direct conflict involving Iran could grow into a regional war and drag neighboring Arab producers into the fight. Yet Schork says traders have reacted far less aggressively to the latest escalation than they did when the conflict first intensified in the spring.
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Oil prices rose roughly 55% over a comparable period earlier in the conflict, according to Schork. This time, they are up only about 20%. Since the short-lived ceasefire appears to be over, oil prices have returned to the highest levels in a month.
“Oil has reacted, but it hasn’t reacted to the extent of what is potentially at stake,” he said.
That may reflect a market that has grown accustomed to threats, temporary ceasefires and shifting messages from Washington and Tehran. But Schork warned that the underlying physical risks have not gone away.
“No one in their right mind is going to insure a vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz with the Iranians now firing,” Schork said. “For all intents and purposes right now, the Strait of Hormuz is closed by Iran’s rhetoric and their escalation in rhetoric.”
Schork also noted that refiners must often pay premiums above benchmark prices to account for shipping constraints, regional shortages and geopolitical risks. During the previous spike, he said, physical buyers were already effectively paying around $150 per barrel even when futures contracts showed prices closer to $125.
“When you look at $120 on your screen, that’s not what the refiner is paying,” Schork said. “The refiner is paying a differential, a premium.” That means a return to $120 or $130 futures would not fully capture the cost shock moving through the physical market if the conflict worsens.
The United States also has less room to cushion another spike than it did earlier in the year. Schork pointed out that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to roughly 313 million barrels, its lowest level since 1983.
At the same time, Schork cautioned that oil remains highly vulnerable to sudden reversals. Any ceasefire headline or easing in rhetoric could cause prices to fall sharply, even if the agreement proves temporary or fails to resolve the underlying supply constraints.
“What we do know is we’re going to see a massive spike, either a spike higher or a spike lower,” he said.
That volatility reflects a market caught between worsening fundamentals and a persistent belief that political leaders will eventually find an off-ramp. The danger, according to Schork, is that traders may be relying too heavily on that assumption while global inventories are thin, shipping routes are threatened and the United States has fewer emergency barrels available to stabilize prices.
“They’re playing with a very weak hand right now,” he said. “And that sets a scenario for significantly higher prices.”
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