Oil Expert Who Nailed Iran War Price Spike Says Record $225 Is Possible

The price of oil continues to swing on the latest updates around the Iran War, with President Trump's own words about a potential end to the war contributing to a retreat on Monday.

But even after the price of WTI fell 15% from around $120 a barrel, the worst could still be yet to come, according to one of the top energy analysts who correctly predicted oil's surge to annual highs last week.

Veteran analyst Stephen Schork told Coinage that even if the U.S. and its allies tap their strategic oil reserves — it may not be as effective as many traders think.

"Realistically, you can only expect to get about an additional 4 to 6 million barrels a day onto the market once we start releasing," he told Coinage, noting the main supply issues are in Asian markets. "Now, the problem here is that is that that is oil available into a market that is already supplied with oil."

As Schork explains, all eyes remain on the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's oil supply flows. China specifically depends on the Strait for nearly half of its oil consumption.

After signaling a potential end to the conflict nearing, President Trump threatened Iran again in the evening if they attempted to disrupt tankers in the region.

"If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far," the President wrote on Truth Social. "This is a gift from the United States of America to China, and all of those Nations that heavily use the Hormuz Strait."

Before that threat on Monday, the G7 finance ministers had already issued a joint statement earlier in the day to quell the surge in oil prices.

“We stand ready to take necessary measures, including to support global supply of energy such as stockpile release,” they said in the statement. But according to Schork, the damage in the region has largely already been done — with Iran continuing to attack oil storage centers in the Gulf. As the supply disruption continues, he laid out price targets he's watching now.

“Our first target is $125 ... and that $125 is a 95% or a second standard deviation simulation,” Schork said Monday, noting he thought it would take 15 days to get there. “We've gotten there over the last 15 hours. So essentially, we were at that make or break point for the global economy at this point.”

But traders seem to be giving credence to the idea that cooler heads will prevail in the region. Optimistically, Schork noted that so far attacks have largely been reserved for oil reserve sites and not production facilities in Iran.

"I want to be clear on this — it's not Iranian oil production and that that is key. If the Israelis go after the production, then it's a whole new world. And I don't think they will go there because of the cataclysm that would cause in the global economy," he said.

For now, Schork continues to watch the exchanges and price spreads in Dubai and Oman versus what is happening with oil futures stateside — mentioning that would be a mistake.

"I think the speculator money is going in the wrong market in the wrong direction. They're betting on a shortage in a market that's already long oil, that's going to have more oil released onto it, and they're ignoring the Asian market, which is where we're going to start to see the shortages," he said.

Given the shortages, any marginal uptick in the hostilities could send oil prices surging even faster this week, with a potential run to the all-time high past $150 a barrel, Schork predicted.

"Certainly if you see any sort of further escalation ... now that Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, so forth, are storing their oil, if Iran goes after those supplies ... that will be the next catalyst and that will give us the roadmap to $164," he said, noting fears that other conflicts in the Middle East usually came with a clear military objective. Given President Trump's back-and-forth approach to the war, Schork mentioned traders may be caught in a more difficult position of trying to track odds of de-escalation — especially as Iran just selected a new supreme leader.

Last weekend, Israel's attack on Iran's oil facilities in Tehran sparked the surge to $120. Depending on how the next week goes, Schork also predicted oil prices in a doomsday scenario where oil production facilities begin to get struck, or if tankers get hit in the Strait.

"My worst case scenario, Armageddon, is $218 to $225," he said. "That is a four standard deviation, a four-sigma event. Can we get there? Odds are long, but we can get there."

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Tuesday that U.S. attacks on Iran would ratchet up aggressively.

“Today will be our most intense day of strikes inside Iran," he said.