Why Bitcoin Could Fall to $60,000 in 2026, According to Fundstrat

Top crypto analyst Sean Farrell has had a good few years correctly predicting Bitcoin's rise in the bull market. But now, Fundstrat's Head of Research is kicking off 2026 with a warning.

Farrell says Bitcoin could potentially hit a rough patch that sends it tumbling as low as $60,000 this year before rebounding to close out the year around $115,000.

“Long term, Bitcoin, in my view, is still pre-programmed for $1 million. So let’s get that out of the way,” he told Coinage in a new interview explaining his caution. “My view is just that at some point in the first half of this year, I think we get one more stumble. And that will present a very compelling opportunity to really go in hand-over-fist in a deep value zone and ride that into year end.”

For starters, as many have observed, Farrell’s price targets are far more muted than those of Fundstrat Head of Research, Tom Lee, who now also leads the largest Ethereum treasury companies in BitMine. (Lee told me in October at Korea Blockchain Week he saw Ethereum hitting $10,000 by the end of 2025. It ended closer to $3,000.)

But as Farrell explains, part of the discrepancy between the price targets is due to more dedicated crypto research for traders who may not be so fulfilled by buying and holding forever.

“I really focus on crypto for folks like I said, with crypto-focused portfolios, who care a lot about the path and timing,” Farrell explained. So why the expected weakness in the early path through 2026?

Farrell’s $60,000 mid-year target is not a result of weakening fundamentals, but rather short-term market dynamics and risk signals that are flashing complacency. Bitcoin is trending lower even as volatility is near cycle lows. Valuation indicators are also far from extremes.

“The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is around 15%, which is well below cycle highs of 29%,” Farrell said. Another measure, the MVRV ratio, sits at about 1.6, or “squarely between deep value… and that upper range I look at around 2.5 to 3x.”

All of this, Farrell noted, “means a stumble wouldn’t be out of character” given how much optimism is already priced into broader markets. “There are a lot of things that could take those risk measures that right now are very tame and drive them higher in a heartbeat,” he added, citing possible Fed chair volatility, tariff shocks, and uncertainty around AI-driven growth.

And yet, despite painting a cautious picture for the first half of the year, Farrell remains optimistic that the back half of 2026 will reward those who stay plugged in.

“I think the policy objectives of the administration are going to be a lot easier to implement,” he said, citing expected clarity on tariffs, and dovish monetary policy heading into key mid-terms. “Once we clear these risks, I think there’s going to be… some amazing opportunities to make a lot of money.”

For now, he advises investors to embrace the volatility. “That lends to a buy the dip, sell the rip type environment,” he said.

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