Why Bitcoin Could Hit $100K by Year-End, Says Eric Jackson
Bitcoin's fundamentals are still firing, despite a recent pullback.
By Zack Guzman
September 30, 2026
Despite the recent pull-back, Bitcoin may have farther to run before year-end.
That is the view of SRX Global Head of Asset Management Eric Jackson, who says Bitcoin’s recent breakout has become durable enough that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could climb to $100,000 before 2026 wraps up.
“I think we’re sort of on the track towards 100K by the end of this year,” Jackson told Coinage in a new interview.
It is not a call he makes without qualification. Jackson repeatedly stressed that his own bullish instincts can become a liability, and that the market could still be derailed by worsening macro conditions. But after watching Bitcoin climb out of what his firm’s model identified as a stressed regime earlier this year, he thinks the balance has shifted.
The more important takeaway, he argues, is not any single headline, crypto catalyst, or even Bitcoin’s famous four-year cycle. It's improving liquidity.
Jackson said SRX’s Bitcoin model weighs macro factors including interest rates, global liquidity and correlations with assets like gold in an effort to determine whether Bitcoin is in a bullish, mixed or stressed market regime.
The model does not try to predict what Bitcoin will do tomorrow. Instead, Jackson said it is designed to identify the direction of travel over roughly 30-day periods.
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That framework led his team to turn cautious in late May, when Bitcoin was trading near $77,000.
Jackson said the model flashed a stressed-market signal on May 26, prompting the firm to reduce exposure and buy downside protection. Bitcoin ultimately fell as low as roughly $58,000 before spending much of the summer chopping sideways. Then the signal changed.
On Aug. 14, Jackson said the model moved out of stress and into a mixed regime while Bitcoin traded near $62,000. Within days, it flipped bullish. Bitcoin soon surged through $70,000.
Now, despite a pullback from that move, Jackson says the broader setup remains constructive.
“Ignore the news headlines,” he said. “The key things are, at least according to me and this model, these macro indicators.” That also explains why Jackson is skeptical of one of crypto’s most enduring narratives: Bitcoin’s four-year cycle.
The theory has long held that Bitcoin tends to move through roughly four-year boom-and-bust cycles around its programmed halving events. Jackson said his team tested that idea against the data and did not find it useful enough to include in the model.
“That’s sort of like an old wives’ tale that we just don’t believe in and we don’t see from the data,” he said.
In Jackson’s view, Bitcoin has matured too much to be reduced to one recurring crypto-native pattern. Institutional participation, ETFs and broader macro forces now play a larger role in determining where capital moves.
“Liquidity sort of matters more than anything else,” he said.
That does not mean Bitcoin has become indistinguishable from gold, stocks or other macro assets. Jackson still sees unique characteristics in the way crypto trades, particularly its tendency to build momentum on itself.
A little price strength brings buyers back. More buyers push prices higher. The rally then attracts another wave of capital. For Jackson, that is a reminder of how quickly consensus can become stale in crypto.
“Sentiment can get on one side of the boat,” he said, before even a small change sends the market far beyond what investors thought possible just weeks earlier. That helps explain why he believes Bitcoin’s latest move could persist.
After topping near $126,000 last year, Bitcoin spent months in a bearish trend before bottoming near $58,000. Jackson said markets that finally break out of prolonged downtrends do not typically reverse course immediately.
“Once you sort of get out of that rut that you’re in, and you do make a move, you don’t immediately roll over and go back down,” he said. That echoes a similar sentiment shared last week by hedge fund founder Mark Yusko, who has his own Bitcoin price target of $250,000 this cycle.
Meanwhile, Jackson flagged another engine flipping from bearish to bullish. The largest Bitcoin treasury company, Strategy, recently saw its preferred perpetual stock battle all the way back to par value. That could mean Strategy finally has a funding mechanism open to it to buy more Bitcoin. STRC had traded as low as $72 this summer, but was trading just below its $100 par value on Tuesday at $99.58 by market close. (When STRC trades above $100, the company has issued new shares to the tune of billions of dollars.)
Jackson believes Strategy has already achieved enough scale to survive and could continue behaving like what he described as a “3x Bitcoin ETF.” But he is far less optimistic about many of the companies that tried to replicate Strategy’s playbook.
Instead, Jackson's SRXH fund is pursuing a different approach. Rather than simply holding Bitcoin and absorbing its volatility, Jackson said the firm is building what he describes as a hedged, multi-asset digital asset treasury guided by the same macro regime model.
The portfolio is designed to move exposure up or down depending on whether Bitcoin is in a bullish, mixed or stressed environment. It can hold Bitcoin and Ethereum, options tied to those assets, select altcoins and equities linked to areas like Bitcoin mining and AI infrastructure.
The idea reflects Jackson’s broader criticism of the first generation of Bitcoin treasury companies: too much financial engineering, and not enough risk management.
Instead of creating new preferred-share structures or dividends to compensate investors for Bitcoin’s volatility, Jackson said he would rather attack the volatility itself.
“Why not just have an approach where you build a model where you can predict where prices are going and hedge?” he said.
Whether that model continues to work will depend on the same forces Jackson says Bitcoin investors should be watching now. At the top of his list are the 10-year Treasury yield and global liquidity.
Higher rates remain a constraint across markets, particularly housing, where Jackson argues elevated borrowing costs can suppress an important source of consumer wealth and liquidity. Any meaningful easing in those pressures could create a tailwind for risk assets, including crypto.
That same thesis is at the heart of Fundstrat's bullish calls for crypto as well, with Lee telling Coinage earlier this month that an increasingly dovish Fed will likely re-set rate expectations into year-end.
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