Why Bitcoin's Rally Could Stall As Strategy's Dividend Date Hits
As Strategy sees its preferred stock's ex-dividend date hit, Bitcoin's rally could stall
By: Zack Guzman
April 15, 2026
Bitcoin’s push toward $75,000 is starting to look a little more fragile than the headline number suggests.
Under the hood, much of the recent buying pressure has stemmed from Strategy’s aggressive accumulation campaign. But today is the ex-dividend date, or the cutoff date that would snapshot holders of the company's preferred stock, STRC, before being entitled to the company's advertised 11.5% dividend.
The company’s preferred stock product, which has drawn attention for its eye-catching double-digit yield, has helped fuel a surge in demand leading into its April 15 ex-dividend date. But that same dynamic may now be setting the stage for a near-term slowdown in Bitcoin’s price action.
Last week, at-the-market offerings tied to STRC enabled Strategy to buy $1 billion in Bitcoin — the first time the company fueled a Bitcoin buy solely from proceeds from its preferred stock, rather than also issuing common stock. But as data from Fundstrat shows, Bitcoin has historically not performed well this year following STRC ex-dividend dates.
“It is possible that some demand was pulled forward," Fundstrat Head of Digital Asset Strategy Sean Farrell wrote in a new note to clients. "Historically, BTC performance in the ~14 days following prior STRC ex-dividend dates has been weak ... suggesting a potential air pocket once this flow subsides.”
In the first three months of the year, Bitcoin has retreated 4.3%, 6.5%, and 11.6% in the two-weeks after STRC's ex-dividend dates in January, February, and March, respectively.
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The role of Strategy and its preferred stock is becoming central to how some analysts are thinking about Bitcoin’s recent strength. Investors chasing yield may have rushed into Strategy’s product ahead of the dividend cutoff, effectively compressing what would have been more gradual buying pressure into a shorter window.
The result? A temporary boost to Bitcoin demand as capital flows into Strategy’s ecosystem enabling the company to buy Bitcoin — followed by a potential vacuum once that incentive disappears.
Of course, that doesn’t necessarily mean a Bitcoin reversal is imminent. The broader backdrop still includes strong structural demand from institutions, ETF flows, and ongoing interest in Bitcoin as a macro hedge. (In fact, even Goldman Sachs got in on the Bitcoin ETF action by unveiling their new Bitcoin Premium Income ETF.) But it does introduce a more nuanced view of what’s been driving the latest leg higher.
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