Why the Bitcoin Rally to $250K Has Begun: Hedge Fund Manager Mark Yusko
Hedge fund manager Mark Yusko says Bitcoin has shifted from distribution to accumulation
By: Zack Guzman
September 23, 2026
Hedge fund manager Mark Yusko seen it all in the crypto ups and downs. As an early Bitcoin investor, that's enabled him to avoid big drawdowns — just as he did last year.
But the Morgan Creek Capital Management founder now says Bitcoin has undergone a significant change beneath the surface in recent weeks. After months in which rallies were met with selling, Yusko believes Bitcoin is on a new path to a new all-time high of $250,000.
“The difference now is every time we get a little low, we get lots of buy activity,” Yusko told Coinage. “And that's people who are accumulating. They're buying something that is below fair value.”
On top of that, fundamentals are holding up in a way that reflects more than just a short-term rally. Yusko says investors are starting to appreciate the macro setup in front of them.
"When you look at the underlying data, which is usually the best way to do it, liquidity is rising, global M2 [money supply] is expanding," he said. "So I think this will be not like straight up to $125,000 and straight up to $250,000. But I do think the durability of the trend will be better."
That represents a notable reversal from the last time Yusko joined Coinage, when his message was considerably more cautious. Back then, he saw Bitcoin caught in a distribution phase where investors who had accumulated at lower prices were using rallies as opportunities to sell. Now, it's not just new retail investors coming back in — but also institutions.
Bitcoin surged as high as roughly $125,000 before its latest correction. At that point, Yusko argues, the cryptocurrency had moved above its fundamental fair value based on network adoption, opening the door for leveraged speculation and an eventual reversal.
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"Part of the reason this down cycle was not as severe, is that shift in ownership," he said. "We didn't have the super levered speculators and gamblers that used to go 50x levered, or 100x levered on Bitfinex and Binance and other places because they could buy the ETF."
But after Bitcoin subsequently plunged as low as roughly $58,000, Yusko believes that relationship flipped. Bitcoin's fair value, he said, is now around $105,000 based on models applying Metcalfe's Law to the growth and activity of its network. Even after Bitcoin's rebound back into the mid-$80,000 range, that would leave the cryptocurrency trading at a sizable discount.
And Yusko sees other pieces falling into place alongside it. Leverage in the Bitcoin market is also relatively low. Most importantly, Bitcoin has begun making the higher highs and higher lows typically associated with an accumulation phase.
“We're getting this accumulation pattern,” Yusko said. “We're making higher lows and higher highs.”
In fact, part of what makes this cycle interesting is that it may already be breaking from Bitcoin's historically neat four-year pattern. Yusko notes that each of the previous three major Bitcoin bear markets lasted almost exactly 364 days. Following that history would have pointed to an early October end to the current downturn, followed by the familiar progression toward another post-halving “crypto spring,” “summer” and eventually the parabolic “winter.”
Instead, Bitcoin appears to have started recovering earlier.
“We seem to break that pattern a little bit,” Yusko said, pointing to the cryptocurrency's faster-than-expected recovery. But he cautioned against treating Bitcoin's cycles as an exact science. Whether the cycle lasts precisely four years, three years and 11 months, or something slightly different matters less than the underlying forces driving it.
It remains to be seen if the thesis that more institutional investors involved in Bitcoin continues to reduce volatility over the longer term, but the trend seems to be holding up. Bitcoin today is a considerably different asset than it was during its earliest boom-and-bust cycles, with deeper pools of capital participating in the market. That could potentially smooth some of the violent swings that historically defined Bitcoin's path higher.
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