Bitcoin Will Top $125K This Year, Says Analyst Who Nailed Price In 2023

A six-figure sum per Bitcoin is in the cards for 2024, according to Fundstrat’s Head of Digital Asset Strategy Sean Farrell, who highlighted the halving and a shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary stance as crucial factors for crypto’s top coin. After Farrell nailed his $44,000 price call in 2023, Coinage is highlighting his new research in an exclusive for our members.

Considering Bitcoin’s price remains 38% below its all-time high of $69,000, the cryptocurrency has a steep climb ahead of itself to hit Fundstrat’s $125,000 estimate. Yet people were shocked to see Bitcoin bounce back as it did in 2023, Farrell said in a Thursday interview with Coinage, adding that the macro setup supporting Bitcoin’s ascent last year will likely persist in 2024.

“We were coming off of what was the most extreme Fed tightening cycle in the history of the Fed [...] and liquidity conditions, in our view, had bottomed,” he said of 2023. “We see this [year] as a continuation of that bottoming of global liquidity.”

The Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation dented digital asset prices especially hard in 2022 and 2023, Farrell said, as higher interest rates made so-called risk assets less attractive. As traders pencil in potential rate cuts from the U.S. central bank as soon as March, Farrell predicted a return in liquidity will likely buoy Bitcoin’s price.

“We have rate cuts on the radar,” he said, pointing to monetary developments in the Global East as well. “Asian central banks are already easing, and [they] likely will continue to.”

Coming off a correct prediction last year, Farrell prefaced his Bitcoin assessment for 2024 by acknowledging that there “are going to be some bumps along the way,” calling out the first quarter of this year as an imaginably turbulent time.

Including this month’s quarterly refinancing announcement from the U.S. Treasury Department and shifting Fed expectations, Fundstrat underscored several possible snags for risk assets in a recent report. Over the past week, rate-cut expectations for March have slimmed from 70% to 56%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

In addition to rate cuts, Farrell said the prospect of the halving has historically created a positive catalyst for Bitcoin in cycles past. Expected to take place in April, the halving will slash the incoming supply of Bitcoin awarded to miners by half.

“At the very least it will spur a narrative,” Farrell said. “So far, we are three for three on historical price increases around the halving.”

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