Why Trump’s Plan for More Iraqi Oil Won’t Lower Prices
Oil expert Stephen Schork explains why oil's move higher is just getting started
By: Zack Guzman
July 23, 2026
President Donald Trump says more Iraqi oil is coming — and that American companies will help bring it to market.
But according to oil analyst Stephen Schork, producing more crude is not the problem. Getting it out of the region is.
“Iraq could double its oil production,” Schork, principal of The Schork Group, told Coinage in a new interview. “It’s meaningless if you can’t get it through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Oil prices have surged to two-month highs as fighting spilled over into the Red Sea, threatening one of the few remaining alternatives for oil shipments in the region. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for an attack on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea on Thursday, as WTI oil futures topped $91.
With oil shipments once again choked off in the Strait, the channel to the west in the Red Sea had served as one major alternative. But Bab el-Mandeb, off the Arabian Peninsula, is yet another vulnerable chokepoint that can crawl to a standstill if attacks continue. Nearly 12% of the world’s trade moves between Europe and Asia via Egypt’s Suez Canal.
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The logistical reality complicates Trump’s latest attempt to reassure markets. Clearly, investors are growing concerned that all out conflict in the region would essentially halt two of the world’s most important energy chokepoints.
Last week, Schork warned that the conflict could push WTI as high as $113 by the end of the month. Worse yet, some of the ideas President Trump is floating would do little to alleviate the surge higher. Trump presented increased Iraqi production as a potential source of relief last week during an appearance with Iraq’s prime minister.
“We’re going to be taking out a lot of oil,” Trump said. “A lot of oil is coming out, and the American companies are doing it.” Schork dismissed the announcement as a sound bite that ignores the physical structure of the oil market.
“In this case, prices are high because access to supply — regardless of how much oil apparently Iraq is going to produce — can’t get to the market,” he said.
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